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research frustrations

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2003 June 12 Thursday.
Today I tried my hand at drafting a new DU page, but I was singularly unsatisfied with the result. The problem is that this is a huge, sprawling subject. The (partial) draft that I came up with is below.

The one part I like is the summary.

At this stage I feel a bit depressed.

Earlier I started thinking about DU in terms of an analogous problem, that of radon, and it seems to me that maybe the way to crack the DU puzzle is through a series of analogous problems.

There's a uranium dispersal problem, for one thing. There must be analogous situations.

There's also the heavy metal poisoning problem.

... okay, there's a site:-

in Hawaii about pesticides and heavy metal poisoning - a government site

And here we've got lead:-

"Abdominal pain, vomiting, anorexia, ataxia, anemia, lethargy, encephalopathy, irritability, wrist drop, arthralgias."

The point is that lead is one poison but it produces multiple possible effects. That's the kind of illustrative analogy that could be useful.

Now the other thought that came to mind was "dirty bomb," and I get some hits ....

a dirty bomb page

Now, it also occurs to me that I should look more closely at the Gulf War Syndrome statistics, and a page for that is:-

some Gulf War Syndrome publications

Visited this page:-

http://www.va.gov/pressrel/PGVAF396.htm

.... on which there was this:-

On Feb. 3, 1995, VA published a final regulation on compensation payments to chronically disabled Persian Gulf veterans with undiagnosed illnesses. The undiagnosed illnesses, which must have become manifest either during service in or within two years of leaving the Southwest Asia theater, may fall into 13 categories: fatigue; signs or symptoms involving skin; headache; muscle pain; joint pain; neurologic signs or symptoms; neuropsychological signs or symptoms; signs or symptoms involving the respiratory system (upper or lower); sleep disturbances; gastrointestinal signs or symptoms; cardiovascular signs or symptoms; abnormal weight loss; and menstrual disorders. While these categories represent the signs and symptoms frequently noted in VA's experience to date, other signs and symptoms also could qualify for compensation. A disability is considered chronic if it has existed for at least six months. For claims considered under this special regulation, VA has a 29 percent approval rate among claims where the veteran has demonstrated symptoms within a required two-year period after leaving the Gulf. Among the remaining 71 percent, most are diagnosable conditions treated under conventional regulations, while some symptoms fail to meet the 6-month chronicity requirement or are found to be related to another known cause.

... this is interesting. You can go to:-

www.gulflink.osd.mil/cgi-bin/texis/search/browse/

and browse CIA documents ... but it's late, and time for bed.

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Note: the rough draft of a DU page, below, suggests that DU is responsible for the Gulf War Syndrome statistics. Having done just a little more reading, I now believe that such a conclusion is not supported by the evidence. In fact, I believe that most Gulf War Syndrome ill-health statistics are unrelated to DU and the Gulf War Syndrome statistics may in fact be serving to mask any statistical evidence about the health damage done by DU.

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partial draft dated 2003 June 12 -

discarded draft for a DU page

Summary: first widely used on the battlefield in the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War, DU (depleted uranium) stands accused of damaging the health of both Iraqi civilians and American veterans (the victims of Gulf War Syndrome). Conventional assessments of the impact of DU's radioactivity and chemical toxicity indicate that DU is innocent of the effects attributed to it. However, there is a body of both hypothesis and experimental evidence which indicates that the dangers of DU may have been seriously underestimated. Experimental evidence points to a damage-amplifying synergy between the radioactivity of DU and its chemical toxicity. Additionally, where chemical toxicity is concerned, similar damage-amplifying synergies may exist between DU and other heavy metals used on the modern battlefield, these including tungsten, nickel and cobalt. This webpage argues that, in all probability, DU is guilty as charged.

History

After the Persian Gulf War of 1990-91, many members of the military who had served in the Desert Storm campaign became ill.

A document dated 1996 July 01 gives the flavor of the official response:-

Gulf War veterans have been grappling for four and a half years with the postwar onslaught of an array of mysterious symptoms, including memory loss, headaches, low blood pressure, fever, blurred vision and a high rate of birth defects among newborns.

In a recent government study of 10,000 Gulf War veterans, investigators found no clinical evidence of any kind of the mysterious "Gulf War Disease." According to printed reports, Dr. Stephen Joseph, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, said the yearlong investigation showed that the symptoms from which Persian Gulf War veterans are suffering almost invariably involve multiple diseases that do not stem from any one cause. The study was immediately denounced by veterans groups, some of which have suggested that the Pentagon may be trying to cover up evidence of a mystery disease.

This document was found on the website:-

www.gulfweb.org

.... by drilling down through various levels, it is possible to arrive at:-

http://www.gulfweb.org/doc_show.cfm?ID=456

.... which is the document in question, apparently titled "First use of depleted uranium on battlefield suspected in ills of U.S. troops" and written by Francisco Lopez Reuda.

Gulf War veterans have been grappling for four and a half years with the postwar onslaught of an array of mysterious symptoms, including memory loss, headaches, low blood pressure, fever, blurred vision and a high rate of birth defects among newborns.

In a recent government study of 10,000 Gulf War veterans, investigators found no clinical evidence of any kind of the mysterious "Gulf War Disease." According to printed reports, Dr. Stephen Joseph, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, said the yearlong investigation showed that the symptoms from which Persian Gulf War veterans are suffering almost invariably involve multiple diseases that do not stem from any one cause. The study was immediately denounced by veterans groups, some of which have suggested that the Pentagon may be trying to cover up evidence of a mystery disease.

Meantime, according to the same document, the following news was coming from blockaded Iraq:-

Iraqi Health Ministry officials say their records show that aplastic anemia and leukemia among children have risen dramatically over the past four and a half years; liver and kidney disease are now ranked as the fourth and fifth causes of death among children over the age of 5. The number of congenital birth defects is almost 28 percent, up from 8 percent before the war, and late-term miscarriages are also spiraling upward.

It is impossible to verify the statistics, and ministry officials claim that the figures are actually low because most women no longer give birth in hospitals or are able to take their children there for treatment.

Historically, then, Iraqi statistics were regarded as dubious. As for statistics on the poor health of American veterans, they were attributed to multiple causes rather than one single cause.

At this point it is worth noting that the "multiple diseases" theory does not explain why Gulf War veterans have experienced disability rates higher than those experience by veterans from earlier campaigns, such as the Korean conflict.

In this context, Francisco Lopez Reuda writes of a theory originated by German epidemiologist Dr. Siegwart Horst Gunther, the theory being that battlefield DU may be the culprit. Gunther appears to have been the individual who originated the DU theory.

Gunther, an epidemiologist and specialist in infectious disease who has studied these illnesses in Iraq since 1991, believes the children are dying from contamination by depleted uranium. Gunther literally stumbled upon his theory in 1991, when he found several spent DU shells as he strolled in the desert during a road trip from Amman, Jordan, to Baghdad, Iraq. He took one home with him to Germany and didn't think much more of it until later that year when, on another visit to Iraq, he observed a high rate of illness and death among children in the southern part of the country, many of whom had collected shells similar to the one he had found.

Since that time, Desert Storm veterans have continued to fall ill, and the authorities have continued to deny a causal link between Gulf War Syndrome and any identifiable cause.

Logic Break

(i) Disability rates amongst American veterans of the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War are higher than disability rates for veterans of earlier American conflicts, such as Vietnam and Korea.

(ii) The higher disability rates for the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War suggest that the Desert Storm campaign involved exposing troops to some mysterious Agent X which was not present in earlier American military campaigns.

(iii) Depleted uranium is a candidate for Agent X given that DU was widely used during the Desert Storm campaign.

The Official Stance in 2003

As of June 2003, the official stance of the American authorities (and, too, of the British authorities) remains to deny that there is a problem.

This comes through very clearly in an article by Deborah Blum of the Los Angeles Times, an article reprinted in Japan in The Japan Times on 2003 June 12 (on page 21, under the headline "There's a dark magic in America's silver bullets.")

Blum concludes this article by saying:-

When it comes to depleted uranium weapons, I vote for the high moral ground. Let's acknowledge that perception of risk can sometimes be as frightening as risk itself. Let's invite U.N. environmental inspectors to do an independent assessment in Iraq. And as a matter of principle, let's clean up our mess.

From what comes before this "moral high ground" statement, it would be easy to get the sense that the problem is indeed a problem of perceptions. We are told that heavy metals such as DU "can damage kidneys, break down nerves and cause chemically induced cancers."

We are also told that military doctors have been watching for such signs of "evil," but that "In the 12 years of testing, they've found no such poisoning, no radiation-linked cancers, no patterns of uranium-sparked disease."

Admittedly:-

Studies in cell cultures and microorganisms show even low-level toxicity does harm at the cellular level, that even wimp radiation kills and deforms cells. A few studies have suggested DU might be worse than passive metals such as lead, that radiation and toxicity could work together to cause genetic damage. Perhaps.

In this case, the journalist seems to have taken an honest stab at getting at the truth, and seems to have decided (pretty much) to buy the official line (although the official line is not civilized enough to say "let's clean up our mess.")

Choosing The Axioms

From the poorly-annotated depths of memory, there arises the following quotation:-

"If you can choose your axioms, you can win any argument."

This seems to apply to the current rhetorical struggle between the American military establishment and dissenting voices.

The axioms which the establishment has chosen seem to be as follows:-

(i) Heavy metal damage caused by the chemical toxicity of DU will appear in one of a limited number of clearly defined pigeonholes, such as cancer and kidney damage;

(ii) Damage which does not fit into one of the predetermined DU pigeonholes is not DU damage; and

(iii) Laboratory evidence demonstrating damage to cells cannot be applied to bodies made out of cells.

It is possible to assemble an alternative set of axioms, as follows:-

(i) Given that the science is incomplete, it may be that DU damage will manifest itself in unexpected ways;

(ii) The bad health of Desert Storm veterans logically implies some form of cause; and

(iii) Laboratory evidence demonstrating damage to cells can be applied to bodies which consist of cells.

DU Damage

Considered as a source of radiation, depleted uranium is sufficiently damaging to make it unwise to go scavenging for artillery shells which happen to be made of it. Even so, if it is outside the body, it is unlikely to be particularly harmful, even if it exists in quantity. One reason for this is explained on the website:-

Virtual Naval Hospital -
Medical Management of Radiological Casualties

DU emits alpha, beta, and weak gamma radiation. Due to the metal's high density, much of the radiation never reaches the surface of the metal. It is thus "self-shielding." Uranium-238, thorium-234, and protactinium-234 will be the most abundant isotopes present in a DU-ammunition round and its fragments.

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