Section 20 Entry 0001. Date: 2003 March 02 Sunday.
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For us here in Japan, one of the news stories which gripped our imaginations in the week just gone was the item about the worker who fell asleep on the job. The police are now on the case.

This guy nodded off while he was driving a shinkansen - a bullet train, which hurtles along at fantastic speeds. A while back, I wrote a couple of paragraphs about the bullet train, which happens to be one of my favorite toys.

I've always felt supremely safe in these things, since there's no real sensation of speed. Your average suburban train lurching round a steep curve at less than walking pace will give you more of a sensation of "being on a train" than the shinkansen does. But, when you look out of the window, it's clear that you are in fact traveling at a fair percentage of warp speed, and it's this disconnect between what the eye sees and what the body feels that gives the whole experience something of a dreamlike feel, particularly if it's late at night and you're exhausted to the point of no longer being one hundred per cent in contact with reality ....

Anyway, to get back to the news story, a driver apparently snoozed off when driving one of these shinkansen trains, and was sleep for something like eight minutes or so. The train was traveling on automatic pilot, and the automatic pilot was smart enough to bring the train to a halt at the designated station.

However, although the automatic pilot knows when and how to stop the train, it's not entirely accurate, and apparently drivers usually switch off the automatic pilot at a certain point and control the train manually on the final approach to the platform. In this case, the train stopped itself, but not quite in the right place, and a conductor came to talk to the driver about it ... knocked on the door ....

.... and the next thing you know there were shocked news announcers on TV telling Japan what had happened, and the police were investigating.

This is the one news story in the last week which has really woken people up and got them talking. Trailing along in a poor second place is North Korea, which is continuing its game of hanging tough.

First, the North Koreans sent one of their fighter planes into South Korean territory, albeit for only a couple of minutes. Second, they test-fired a Silkworm missile. This, apparently, is only a whimpy little short-range missile, which splashed harmlessly into the sea somewhere near North Korea's coast, but in these matters it's the thought that counts.

The third step, maybe, will be for North Korea to launch another fully-grown missile flying over Japan. (If you want the details of the missile, you can find stuff on the Internet by searching for "Taepodong" and "Taep'o-dong".)

Hmmm ... having written the above, I've realized it's a supremely lazy thing to write, so I've spent a couple of minutes hunting around and have found a page on the site of the Federation of American Scientists which has missile details. The page is here.

On checking, I find that the missile which the North Koreans fired over Japan in the Taepodong 1. I am surprised to find that it was fired back in 1998, on August 31. To me, this incident seems really close in time. I sometimes get so tired that I (honestly) can't remember what happened last week, but this incident has plainly been burnt into my memory with white fire.

It seems that the Taepodong 1 missile can be used as a three-stage missile, which cuts the payload. The data which interests me is the one-stage data, which says that the Taepodong can throw 1,000 kilograms (2,205 pounds) a distance of 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles).

How far is it from Tokyo to Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea? I haven't been able to find a site which will tell me. But Seoul, in South Korea, is almost on the border with North Korea, and the distance from Tokyo to Seoul is 1153 kilometers (716 miles).

That's a bit sobering ... even if the North Koreans have a really clunky nuke that weighs 1,000 kilograms, then they could use their missile to nuke Tokyo ... I don't personally think they're going to do that, even if war breaks out this year on the Korean peninsular ... however, in a certain country (which shall be nameless) there are a certain number of right wing nuts (a certain mayor comes to mind, for example) who are just itching to start mainlining toxic drugs, Mr Hyde's Thermonuclear Special amongst them.

If the North Korean problem gets out of hand, then one possible consequence is going to be the militarization of the entire neighborhood. If the rightwing nuts get their hands on the machinery of power in Nation X, and if Nation X starts scrambling to build nukes, then everyone else trapped in the elevator is going to start wanting their own hand grenades.

(Back in the days of the cold war, nuclear deterrence was described as being like two people trapped in the same elevator, each holding a hand grenade and each menacing the other by threatening to pull the pin.)

To get the distance from Seoul to Tokyo, I used the point-to-point distance calculator at indo.com/distance. The same calculator says that it is 9,585 kilometers (5,956 miles) from Seoul to Los Angeles.

Now, using all three stages, the Taepodong 1 (the missile which the North Koreans test-fired over Japan on August 31 back in 1998) can throw 380 kilograms (838 pounds) a distance of 2,672 kilometers (1,660 miles). Which means it cannot hit Los Angeles. It cannot hit the West Coast of the United States of America.

The Federation of American Scientists has some data on the followup missile, the Taepodong 2 (or, if you prefer, the Taep'o-dong 2) which says that, used as a three-stage rocket, it can throw 390 kilograms (860 pounds) a maximum of 4,300 kilometers (2,672 miles).

Now, using my calculator, I figure that if the North Koreans park their Taepodong missile on the border, close to Seoul, and fire it in the direction of Los Angeles, California, then the missile will fall short by 5,285 kilometers (3,284 miles).

It seems that the North Koreans cannot hit the West Coast of the United States with a missile.

If so, then George Tenet, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, was lying last month (February 2003) when he indicated otherwise when he was testifying at a Senate committee hearing in Washington.

He was asked if North Korea had a missile capable of reaching the West Coast of the USA. His reply, as reported in the newspapers (and, if memory serves, I saw him say this on TV, too) was "I think the declassified answer, is yes, they can do that."

But, according to my calculator, this is a lie.

Of course, I don't necessarily bow down to the wisdom of my calculator. I'm not going to place my unqualified faith in this minor deity just because it has a million fingers and toes, while I am stuck with a grand total of twenty.

However, on the site of the Federation of American Scientists I found (today, 2003 March 02) a link to:-

North Korean Threat Exaggerated

.... the Federation of American Scientists site describes the link in these terms:-

Writing in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Ivan Oelrich, Strategic Security Project Senior Research Associate, writes that CIA Director George Tenet's implication that North Korea could strike the US West Coast with nuclear weapons is exaggerated.

The article by Ivan Oelrich includes statements which can be summarized as follows:-

(i) Nobody outside North Korea really knows how far a North Korean missile might fly;

(ii) Nobody knows how big a North Korean nuke might be;

(iii) To guess that North Korea might be able to nuke the West Coast of North America you have to be guessing that North Korean nukes are really small ("estimates that North Korea missiles can reach the United States with a nuclear warhead assume quite sophisticated nuclear weapon designs.")

Speaking of what he calls the "Taepo-Dong 2" missile (the spellings are metastasizing), Scientist Oelrich ends his article with the following comment:-

Until the North Koreans flight-test the missile, it is too early speak with any certainty about their ability to reach the Pacific Northwest and government officials should be more careful to qualify their estimates of dangers facing the nation.

So how much does a nuke weight? The Americans dropped one on Hiroshima, giving it the cute name "Little Boy". By punching "little boy Hiroshima weight" into my search engine I find that Little Boy weighed 9,700 lbs. (This is why I teach my Japanese students what an "lb" is.)

Looking in the dictionary (because I myself don't really know what an "lb" is in the modern world) I find that an lb (a "pound") is 0.4536 kilograms. So Little Boy weighed about 4,399 kilograms.

Apparently it's been estimated that with a one-stage booster the Taepodong 2 missile can throw a payload of 1,000 kilograms (2,205 pounds) a total of 3,500 kilometers (2,175 miles).

Now, nuclear weapons have been slimmed down since the Second World War, to the point where there now exists, I believe, something called a backpack nuke, which you could carry on a hike.

So how big is a North Korean nuke? I turned to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, but at that point weariness cut in. The guts of the matter is that George Tenet was being decidedly economical with the truth when he told the Senate that "the declassified answer, is yes."

Can the North Koreans hit the West Coast of the United States with a ballistic missile? Well, maybe, maybe not. If yes, then can they nuke the West Coast with a missile? Well, only if they can build a really small nuke. In other words, only if their nuclear weapons technology is really sophisticated.

How sophisticated are the North Koreans? Well, after the launch of the Taepodong 1 missile back in August of 1998, the North Koreans broadcast some TV propaganda saying that this missile had launched a satellite into outer space and that this satellite was now circling round planet Earth.

The North Korean propaganda was rebroadcast on Japanese TV, and it included a North Korean animation showing the track of the satellite as it circled the planet. And what struck me, as I studied this incredibly crude animation, was that the "circle" was a polygon, the North Korean animators apparently lacking sufficient computer power to convert the flat edges of their polygon into a true circle.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has somedata on North Korea's Nuclear Program which does not give an estimate of how heavy a North Korean nuke might be but which does say:-

The longer-range Taepodong-2 may be ready for flight-testing. Depending on the payload, it may have a range greater than 6,000 kilometers, sufficient to strike parts of Hawaii and Alaska.

In summary, then, it seems the North Koreans might conceivably be in a position to do a nuclear Pearl Harbor attack, but, apart from that, they are not in a position to nuke the USA. (Strategically, I don't really think Alaska counts.)

It seems the North Koreans could quite possibly nuke Tokyo, or drop a nuke right on top of my house. Even so, I'd prefer not to have George Bush rushing in and starting another war in my backyard (which seems to be the direction he's heading in) and most people actually living in the kill box (including Roh Moo-hyun, the newly-elected President of South Korea) seem to feel the same way.

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Section 20 Entry 0002. Date: 2003 March 02 Sunday.
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Whether by accident or design, George Bush is on track to start a war in my backyard, the North Korean peninsular. The North Koreans can probably nuke Tokyo if they really want to (details in the previous diary entry, just above) so I'm finding myself starting to make the kind of Cold War calculations which I thought had vanished from the world with the fall of the Berlin Wall back in 1989.

(That ridge over there ... yeah, if the nuke went off in the center of Tokyo, you'd get a certain amount of blast protection ....)

At this stage I'm putting the likelihood of a nuclear attack on Tokyo (this year) at considerably less than one per cent, but a war between North Korea and the United States is getting to seem alarmingly probable.

Today, the Korea Herald (in democratic South Korea) has a link to an article about North Korea saying "N.K.'s concern about own security important".

The article is by Seo Hyun-jin, a staff reporter for the Korea Herald. According to the article, Canadian-born Maurice Strong, a special adviser to the United Nations secretary general, says that "Pyongyang and Washington should begin talks to break the current nuclear deadlock." The article, which is dated today, 2003 March 02, opens like this:-

A special adviser to the U.N. secretary general said yesterday that the international community should take seriously Pyongyang's concern that its security is threatened by the United States.

"We must take very seriously the sense of threat North Koreans feel (from the U.S.). When people feel threatened, they will often act on that assumption," Maurice Strong said during a meeting with South Korean reporters in Seoul.

Recently I've been trying to think things through from the position of Kim Jong Il, North Korea's dictator, who rules from Pyongyang.

Kim knows that George Bush has put him in the "axis of evil" box along with Saddam Hussein. Bush is now going after Saddam Hussein, and it looks like there's no way out for Saddam Hussein.

Kim's natural, logical fear is that it's Saddam first and then Jong Il second. So what does he do?

When George Bush turns his attention in Kim's direction, it's reasonable to assume that America's war against North Korea is going to be a replay of Iraq. There's going to be no way out for Kim.

So it really seems to me that Kim must inevitably be thinking about the preemptive option, the George Bush way of dealing with your enemies. The thought must at least have crossed his mind.

At the moment, it looks as if there's a two and a half percent possibility that Saddam Hussein might be able to stall the Americans at least until next year.

But, assuming that George Bush goes ahead and attacks Iraq - most probably some time this month - then that possibility vanishes. Kim will know, then, of a certainty, that he is next.

Now, if the Americans acheive a quick victory in Iraq, Kim Jong Il will probably play for time. But what if the American attack bogs down?

I have no doubt that Saddam Hussein has a secret stash of chemical and biological weapons. In thinking that, I'm as one with George Bush. So what if Saddam Hussein throws these weapons into the battle? If he does (if he can) and if the American attack consequently bogs down (if only temporarily) then Kim Jong Il may think that he sees his moment.

The North Koreans may figure that they can capture the South Korean capital of Seoul, which is right up to the border. And they may in fact be able to do that - particularly if they have a couple of nukes, and use them.

What Kim Jong Il may calculate is that if he takes Seoul, which has a population of over ten million, then he will have hostages he can use for future bargaining, over ten million of them. (The North Koreans have a hostage-taking mentality, and, over the years, have kidnapped quite a few South Koreans, and a significant number of Japanese nationals as well.)

My thinking here is conditoned by an article in the International Herald Tribune, in the issue (as published in Japan) for Saturday-Sunday March 1-2. It's by Nicholas D. Kristof and it talks about Pentagon planning for possible military strikes by America against North Korean nuclear sites.

Apparently the options being considered include:-

• cruise missile strikes
• bombing raids
• using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy North Korean artillery which is threatening Seoul.

The key paragraph is this:-

There's nothing wrong with planning, or with brandishing a stick to get Kim Jong Il's attention. But several factions in the administration are serious about a military strike if diplomacy fails, and since the White House is unwilling to try diplomacy in any meaningful way, it will fail. The upshot is a growing possibility that Geroge W. Bush could reluctantly order such a strike this summer, risking another Korean war.

Okay, time for me to put on my guestimating hat. Let's guess some probabilities.

Probability of further "start talking to me or else" military provocations by North Korea in 2003: 100 percent.

Probability that North Korean military provocations will include the launch of another missile over Japan: 25 percent.

Probability that George Bush will attack Iraq before May 2003: 98 percent.

Probability that the Saddam Hussein will use chemical and/or biological weapons against American forces: 80 percent.

Probability that American attack against Iraq will bog down to the point where it takes more than a fortnight: 30 percent.

Probability that Kim Jong Il will attack South Korea if an American attack bogs down in Iraq: 3 percent.

Probability that George Bush will launch some kind of military strike against North Korea in 2003: 30 percent.

Probability that George Bush will launch some kind of military strike against North Korea before the end of his term of office: 90 percent.

Probability that an American strike against North Korean facilities (artillery positions, nuclear plants, whatever) will be followed by war on the Korean peninsular: 40 percent.

These are just guesses, of course, white rabbits made of smoke that I've just pulled out of my hat here.

But one thing I'm sure of, positively, without a shadow of a doubt: Kim Jong Il keeps revolving this situation in his head, and the logic of the situation brings him back, time and time again, to the thought of launching a preemptive strike. Because George Bush has left Saddam Hussein with no way out, and so, logically, he's not going to leave Kim Jong Il with any way out, either.

In saying that he's prepared to die in Iraq rather than flee, Saddam Hussein may possibly be stating a fact. He may have reconciled himself to the thought that he's probably going to die, that this is the end of the game. But Kim Jong Il might quite possibly be thinking, "Well, I'm stronger than he is. I have a great army, whereas he's down to almost nothing. I have nukes. I can take Seoul, maybe, and then I have ten million hostages. And that's a risky game, but I'm holding the hand that's been dealt to me, and maybe, in the end, that's going to be my only option."

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